Fairfield, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS61 KILN 011857
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend, peaking on Tuesday and
Wednesday, before a chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late
in the week as a cold front slowly approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies clear of clouds, but high thin smoke expected to continue
especially in the southwest forecast area. Continued to keep mention
30 to 35% sky obscuration. Overnight lows will moderate some compared
to last night, with lows in the upper 40s to near 50, though lower
40s likely in the east. Winds becoming light and variable as the
surface high becomes centered over the area overnight, with some
increased potential for light valley fog.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high will slowly slide SE of the region through the day on
Monday, with light/variable winds succumbing to return flow in the
afternoon, beginning SW flow and the start of more earnest warm air
advection. Still another day of slightly below normal temperatures of
mid to upper 70s, with areas along/west of I-75 warmer than points
east. 12z HRRR Near surface and vertically integrated smoke modeling
indicates some thickening of smoke for Monday afternoon, especially
in the tri state region. However, the thicker near surface appears
to remain to the west of the area, so have not introduced smoke/haze
as a weather element, just continuing with the 35-50% sky
obscuration.

Monday night pressure gradient increases as the upper plains trough
and associated cold front begins to make eastward progression.
High/mid clouds to increase, with warmer overnight lows in the low
50s east and mid-upper 50s in western Ohio/Indiana/Northern KY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast temperatures are generally quite close between model
guidance for this period. Some cooler air per European vs GFS on Fri
and Fri night with the winner being the cooler ECMWF and a push
overnight. A larger difference is noted for Sunday highs but being
day 7 + in the forecast, it should not be of importance at this
time. NBM guidance has apparently just split the difference here.

Southwest flow aloft will follow the exiting upper level ridge, and
turn more wsw early on Thursday. GFS has a weak s/w crossing the CWA
on Sat, but this is not supported by ECMWF or Canadian models. The
finer resolution of this very narrow and short-lived feature could
very well be an anomaly at this time. Sat will see the passage of a
weak upper trough.

At the surface, a cold front will situate itself northwest of the
CWA Wed night. There`s a large difference in placement/timing
between the GFS and ECMWF beyond this. GFS is largely finished with
rain Thursday evening, while ECMWF begins to move it in at this time
and keeps a prevailing rain over the CWA through the overnight and
Friday, exiting Fri evening. By Fri night, the GFS wraps another low
up over the GtLks with a trailing cold front passing through on Sat.
It has a good bit of warm sector showers beginning Fri and
continuing overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Continuing the sct250 cloud deck through the period with the high
thin smoke. Cumulus seems to be remaining further south and east of
the region. Kept the MVFR to possible IFR visibility restrictions for
KLUK. Otherwise, very light winds after 00z this evening, becoming
WSW during the day on Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JDR